CHROMATIC FC – All Things San Diego FC

Chromaniacs

Tag: San Diego FC

  • For Chucky Lozano, Play Time Is Over

    For Chucky Lozano, Play Time Is Over

    Last week, San Diego FC players returned for their first week of training for the 2026 season. Friday’s press session kicked off with a banger of an announcement as Sporting Director Tyler Heaps stated that Hirving “Chucky” Lozano “…will not be part of the sporting plans moving forward.” This is a huge announcement: one of your Designated Players will no longer be playing for the team. Heaps later explained that the team is looking at all possibilities, whether to sell or loan the player, but in Heaps’ view, a sale made the most sense.

    Lozano was acquired for a reported $12 million transfer from PSV Eindhoven and was in the first year of a contract that ran through the end of the 2028 season, with two option years following. There was plenty of pomp and circumstance that followed right after Lozano was signed for San Diego. As a Mexican national player who had played big matches for El Tri, he was a player of immense significance for all fans of the Mexican national team. Fans in San Diego knew the name Hirving Lozano.

    More specifically, this acquisition was right out of CEO Tom Penn’s playbook from when he first arrived at LAFC. LAFC signed Carlos Vela as a Designated Player in their first year as a club; Penn, like others, knew that if you bring a Mexican national player to a heavily Mexican-American market, you will get fans out to your matches. The same logic applied in San Diego. Bringing in Lozano was part of their marketing. Crucially, SDFC technically signed Lozano before Tyler Heaps was even named Sporting Director, highlighting a potential disconnect between brand building and roster building.

    On the very final episode of the Behind the Flow podcast, Penn himself said he was excited to see what could happen in season two with Chucky Lozano. Penn noted, “his (Lozano) year two may be better than his year one,” even referencing Carlos Vela in that quote—Vela had 34 goals and 10 assists for LAFC in his second season.

    As Penn was saying this on a podcast released on December 11th, it sounded as though Heaps and company had already made up their mind on Lozano and were planning to sell his contract in the off-season. This was discussed on the Chromaniac Emergency Podcast from Friday. Heaps stated on Friday that the decision was aligned from ownership to leadership and down to the coaching and player level. However, if no one told Penn what was going on back in December, that makes it seem like you’re promoting a player who isn’t in the team’s plans—a move that doesn’t look like alignment from the top down.

    Regardless of what is going on in the C-Suite, Hirving Lozano has overstayed his welcome in San Diego. It doesn’t sound like it was just one thing, like the heated argument for being taken out in Houston towards the end of last season. It was likely a culmination of things throughout the 2025 season that led Heaps and head coach Mikey Varas to kick Lozano off the team.

    Heaps now has a very difficult job: getting rid of a player that everyone knows you don’t want. This transparency will absolutely lower any chance of breaking even on a deal, and San Diego will have to take a loss on the contract. If the rumor that Heaps has been looking to sell Chucky since the start of the off-season is true, they have had over a month to find another team with no takers. The Liga MX season started this weekend and their transfer window closes on February 9th.

    Could an internal league trade happen? Designated Players aren’t traded often, but it does happen. Last season, the Philadelphia Union traded Daniel Gazdag for $4.5 million to the Columbus Crew. A cash-for-player deal could happen, but that might be another tough pill for the San Diego fanbase to swallow—seeing Lozano still playing in this league for a rival.

    The other part of this equation for Tyler Heaps is bringing another Designated Player in. What you’re losing in Lozano is 9 goals and 8 assists in the regular season (and 2 goals/1 assist in the playoffs). Lozano also loved getting the ball and was a player who didn’t back down when opposing fans tried to get in his head.

    Lozano is a player of high quality, and replacing that is difficult. European teams are in the middle of their seasons and are looking to retool rather than sell. Potentially, asking the sister club for a player might be the best option. FC Nordsjælland has a dynamic 18-year-old left winger, Prince Amoako Jr., who currently sits on 5 goals and 4 assists this season.

    Some may think an 18-year-old DP is risky, but the Young Designated Player status is a major advantage. This designation allows a club to give a player 20 years old or younger a budget charge (salary cap number) of only $150,000. Regular Designated Players like Lozano or Anders Dreyer carry a league maximum charge of $803,125 in 2026. Adding Prince Jr. would give Heaps significantly more roster flexibility, potentially allowing the club to keep three U-22 Initiative players while still bringing in another DP in the summer.

    Final Thoughts on the Lozano Legacy

    Lastly, Hirving Lozano came to San Diego FC and got a brand new fan base excited about MLS. The player was marketable and effective on the pitch when healthy. It’s hard to call him a “failure” or a “bust,” but ultimately, the player didn’t fit the system. Heaps and Varas clearly don’t want to force someone that shouldn’t be on the team any longer.

    This isn’t the first time a team dumped a DP after one season—the Vancouver Whitecaps terminated Mustapha Jarju’s contract after just a few months in 2011. Something similar might happen here if a deal isn’t struck soon.

    Other Roster News: Bruseth and Søe

    Another player no longer in the plans is Heine Gikling Bruseth. Originally a U-22 player for Orlando City who never saw minutes, he was selected in the 2024 expansion draft but didn’t play for San Diego either. After a loan to Sarpsborg 08, San Diego announced his permanent transfer to Kristiansund BK for a reported $900k.

    Since Bruseth occupied a U-22 slot, this move cleared the way for Friday’s announcement: the transfer of Osvald Søe from Danish side B.93. Søe is 20, and while not officially reported, he will likely occupy the U-22 and International slots Bruseth left behind. His contract runs through 2027-2028 with a reported fee of $500k.

    Søe is a 6’2’’ center back who has already played 1,440 minutes this season for his former club. His strengths include tackling, aerial ability, and recoveries. On the attack, he completes a high rate of passes and receives the ball regularly. This fits the San Diego system perfectly, where center backs are expected to play a role in possession. We should see plenty of Søe this season, especially with rumors that Paddy McNair might be on his way to Oxford.

  • The Chromaniacs S2 E1 | San Diego FC Sophomore Pre-Season

    The Chromaniacs S2 E1 | San Diego FC Sophomore Pre-Season

  • Expect the E(x)pected (G)oals

    Expect the E(x)pected (G)oals

    Analyzing xG and Its Correlation with MLS Cup Success

    Happy New Year!

    Over the last four seasons in MLS, all four MLS Cup winners have shared a common trait. They did not all lead the league in goals or goal differential; rather, all four winners led the league in xG. Expected goals is not an exact science, and formulas vary across different analytics websites. To put it simply, xG measures the probability of a shot becoming a goal on a scale of 0 to 1, with 1 representing a guaranteed goal. There are numerous ways to measure xG, ranging from whether a shot was headed or taken with a specific foot, to the shot’s location (such as inside the six-yard box or the penalty area) and the context of the play—specifically, whether the opportunity originated from a through ball or a set piece. Ultimately, maintaining a high xG suggests a higher probability of scoring consistently and, as recent history shows, winning the MLS Cup.

    Inter Miami

    Using data from fbref.com, we look first at last season’s winners, Inter Miami. It is no shock that Miami led the league in xG at 68.6 and goals with 81—the third-highest goal total in MLS history. Most of Miami’s goals were scored by Lionel Messi, one of the best to ever play the game, who recorded 29 goals from an xG of 22.4. Second and third on Miami’s list were Luis Suarez (10 goals, 14.4 xG) and Tadeo Allende (11 goals, 10.3 xG), respectively. Miami was not a team that simply outshot everyone; they actually ranked 12th in the league for shots taken, with San Diego FC right below them on the list. Instead, Miami focused on shot quality, tying for the league lead in shots on target (SoT) with 190. Miami also led the league in SoT% at 42.1%, with their “Big Three” accounting for two-thirds of their total xG. This makes sense for a star-studded roster, but how do other teams succeed without that level of individual talent?

    LA Galaxy

    The 2024 LA Galaxy won the MLS Cup after finishing the regular season with the third-most points (64), third-most goals (68), and the fourth-highest goal differential (+19). Crucially, the Galaxy led the league in xG that season with 63.8. They achieved this without a 20-goal scorer; instead, their goal and xG distribution was more balanced. Gabriel Chaves led the team with 16 goals from an xG of 14.4, followed by Dejan Joveljic with 15 goals and Joseph Paintsil with 10. Added to this formula was a fourth key player: midfielder Riqui Puig, an attacking threat who recorded 13 goals from an 8.8 xG. Puig was sorely missed by the Galaxy in 2025 and, due to injury, is expected to miss most of the 2026 season. Overall, the Galaxy led the league in shots on target and ranked second only to Inter Miami in SoT%. Quality of shot truly matters, and having enough high-quality shooters provides a distinct advantage regardless of the opponent.

    Columbus Crew

    What happens when a team relies heavily on a single player to carry the scoring load? Look at the 2023 Columbus Crew. While they did not lead the league in goals—finishing second to Atlanta United with 63—their top scorer, Cucho Hernandez, scored 16 times with a league-leading 20.2 xG. After Cucho, there was a significant drop-off in xG, with Lucas Zelarayan and Christian Ramirez both tied at 6.7. Cucho was not just the best quality shooter on the team; he was one of the best players in MLS that year, leading the league in xG, shots, and shots on target. Coach Wilfried Nancy recognized the importance of providing Cucho with opportunities, designing a system where other players created space and lanes for him to operate. Cucho ranked 7th in the league with 830 touches in the attacking third that year, while his teammate Zelarayan was 20th with 665. Cucho is now 26 years old and playing for Real Betis in La Liga.

    LAFC

    There are also teams that spread shot distribution across the roster, receiving contributions from the bench and newcomers alike. The 2022 MLS Cup winners, LAFC, led the league with an xG of 62.2, with Cristian Arango and Carlos Vela scoring 16 and 12 goals, respectively. Kwadwo Opoku, who played in all 34 regular-season matches but only started 20, scored 7 goals from an xG of 7.4—the third-highest xG on the team. The fifth-highest contribution came from summer transfer Dennis Bouanga, who played under 500 regular-season minutes but contributed vital goals during LAFC’s playoff run. Beyond the top five players, a full third of the team’s xG came from the rest of the roster, including everyday starters and bench players.

    SDFC

    Reflecting on the 2025 San Diego FC season, SDFC ranked 11th in xG. This is an area where the club can improve through better shot quality. Anders Dreyer recorded 17 xG last season, while Chucky Lozano followed with 10 and Onni Valakari with 4.9. Notably, Milan Iloski scored 10 goals despite an xG of only 4.1 (did he just get lucky in San Diego?). It is likely we will see improved shot quality in 2026 from the current roster. While xG data is limited in other leagues, Anders Dreyer tied his career club regular-season total of 19 goals last year; I could see him reaching 15–20 goals next season. Chucky Lozano should aim for double digits and could realistically hit 15 goals this season. New addition Lewis Morgan is also a candidate for double-digit scoring. Meanwhile, Pellegrino, Ingvartsen, and Valakari are expected to play key roles in the attack, potentially contributing between 4 and 8 xG each. Given that San Diego finished 11th in shots on target and 10th in SoT%, the primary focus must remain on shot quality.

    xG is not the only metric that matters, but understanding the factors leading to a goal illustrates the underlying quality of a team. Now that we understand a little but how xG correlates to success in winning an MLS Cup, it will be a crucial stat to track. If we see improved shot quality from San Diego FC, we must ask: where is it coming from, and how can it be sustained? Hopefully, the off-season adjustments will culminate in hoisting a trophy in the near future.

  • A Week Into SDFC’s Offseason

    A Week Into SDFC’s Offseason

    It has been about 10 days since San Diego FC announced their final roster decisions. Since then, a couple of trades have been announced, the MLS SuperDraft has taken place, and San Diego FC is a step closer to starting their 2026 campaign.

    The Final Roster

    First, let’s look at the final roster decisions from 2025. San Diego FC announced last week that the team has picked up options on goalkeeper Pablo Sisniega, defender Ian Pilcher, and midfielder Anibal Godoy. Each player played an integral role down the stretch during SDFC’s playoff run. Sisniega had to fill in for CJ Dos Santos during the playoffs and received four starts during the regular season. Pilcher made an incredible save at the goal line in the match against Minnesota United and ended the season with 17 appearances and 8 starts. Meanwhile, Anibal Godoy served as the veteran presence in the locker room. 2026 will mark Godoy’s 12th season in the league; he played 1,700 minutes in 2025, his highest total since 2021.

    The team also announced the permanent transfer of Onni Valakari through 2028, with an option for 2029. The transfer fee is $1.5 million. While his exact salary wasn’t reported, if he’s making roughly what he earned last year, Valakari could be around $750k–$800k for 2026. This means the total impact on the salary cap and TAM would be approximately $1.3 million a year for the next three seasons, including the prorated transfer fee. Valakari has been worth the money during his SDFC tenure, playing in all 34 regular-season matches while filling multiple positions. He was the “Swiss Army knife” that provided the flexibility the team needed, and he provided memorable moments like scoring the first home goal ever at Snapdragon Stadium and the first playoff goal in club history.

    Another option exercised was for David Vazquez from the Philadelphia Union. The Union receives $250,000 in GAM, with an additional $250,000 if certain metrics are met. Vazquez made two starts and played in four matches for SDFC in 2025. He turns 20 in February and still has plenty of room to grow within the team. One of the biggest pieces of news, however, was the re-signing of forward Amahl Pellegrino through 2026, with options for 2027 and 2028. No financial details were released, but it will be interesting to see if San Diego matches the $850k salary he had in San Jose. Pellegrino was on a massive late-season run, recording six goals and three assists through the end of the season and into the playoffs. He seems like a perfect fit at left wing for the SDFC system.

    The departures from the club include Luca De La Torre, Franco Negri, Emmanuel Boateng, and Corey Baird, while Aiden Harangi’s loan concludes on December 31st. Negri began the year as a starter but eventually lost his role to Luca Bombino at left back. His most noticeable accomplishment in 2025 was that insane pass in San Jose to Marcus Ingvartsen. Emmanuel Boateng saw his playing time drop as Baird and Pellegrino joined the squad. Corey Baird, who arrived from FC Cincinnati during the summer window, found it tough to learn a new system on the fly. He struggled in the number nine role, scoring zero goals in 250 minutes, though he did contribute three straight matches with an assist during the playoffs.

    The most disappointing player of 2025 was Luca De La Torre. As a U.S. National Team player coming from La Liga, there were high hopes for him at his hometown club. He finished with five goals and one assist in 30 matches but lost his starting job down the stretch. It does not appear that Celta Vigo wants him back, so they may explore selling his contract to another MLS club.

    Trades / Signings

    With these moves, San Diego has 26 of 30 roster spots filled. Taking one of those senior spots is Lewis Morgan, acquired in a trade with the New York Red Bulls for $450,000 in 2026 GAM (which could rise to $650,000). Interestingly, San Diego will get $525,000 in GAM back from New York in 2027, making this essentially a “GAM loan.” Tyler Heaps is buying low on a player who was elite in 2024. While injuries limited Morgan to just three matches in 2025, his 2024 stats were impressive: 13 goals, 5 assists, and high rankings in shots and xG. Beyond his offense, he is an excellent defender for his position. It will be interesting to see how he fits a possession-based system, as the 2024 Red Bulls were 27th in possession and relied heavily on counter-attacks.

    San Diego continues the trend of picking up young talent. SDFC traded for 22-year-old Kieran Sargeant from the Houston Dynamo for a 2026 natural third round pick. Sargeant spent 2025 on loan with Lexington SC in the USL Championship, playing over 2,200 minutes at left back. He is a prototypical wingback who gets into the box, recording five assists while maintaining strong defensive numbers. Additionally, the club signed 23-year-old Wilson Eisner through 2027. Eisner played mostly center back and right back for The Town FC in MLS Next Pro. He is another player involved in the attack, but he is highly rated for his defensive abilities, including 160 duels won and 32 interceptions. Both Sargeant and Eisner will provide important depth on the backline.

    MLS SuperDraft

    Finally, in the MLS SuperDraft, San Diego selected midfielder Martin Laula, forward Remi Agunbiade, and goalkeeper Kyle Durham. It is unlikely they will be on the 2026 roster; they will likely be placed on the College Protected List. SDFC’s situation is different this year; last year they needed immediate help and found gems like Manu Duah and Ian Pilcher, but now they have a foundation of young players that just need time to develop. Personally, I think sports drafts are a bit silly and players should be able to sign where they want, like in Europe. The silliness reached a new level Thursday when the Colorado Rapids drafted Mamadou Billo Diop—a player who has already been playing for their own second team all year. I’d think a player already in your system should be excluded from the draft, but MLS likes to MLS, and I guess formalities must be followed.

    In the most MLS trade of all time, Toronto FC traded their first round draft pick to Colorado for a video analyst/assistant coach. Colorado then used that pick to select a player already under contract at their club for 2026.

    — Kieran Doyle (@kierdoyle.bsky.social) 2025-12-19T00:12:42.581Z

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