Analyzing xG and Its Correlation with MLS Cup Success

Happy New Year!

Over the last four seasons in MLS, all four MLS Cup winners have shared a common trait. They did not all lead the league in goals or goal differential; rather, all four winners led the league in xG. Expected goals is not an exact science, and formulas vary across different analytics websites. To put it simply, xG measures the probability of a shot becoming a goal on a scale of 0 to 1, with 1 representing a guaranteed goal. There are numerous ways to measure xG, ranging from whether a shot was headed or taken with a specific foot, to the shot’s location (such as inside the six-yard box or the penalty area) and the context of the play—specifically, whether the opportunity originated from a through ball or a set piece. Ultimately, maintaining a high xG suggests a higher probability of scoring consistently and, as recent history shows, winning the MLS Cup.

Inter Miami

Using data from fbref.com, we look first at last season’s winners, Inter Miami. It is no shock that Miami led the league in xG at 68.6 and goals with 81—the third-highest goal total in MLS history. Most of Miami’s goals were scored by Lionel Messi, one of the best to ever play the game, who recorded 29 goals from an xG of 22.4. Second and third on Miami’s list were Luis Suarez (10 goals, 14.4 xG) and Tadeo Allende (11 goals, 10.3 xG), respectively. Miami was not a team that simply outshot everyone; they actually ranked 12th in the league for shots taken, with San Diego FC right below them on the list. Instead, Miami focused on shot quality, tying for the league lead in shots on target (SoT) with 190. Miami also led the league in SoT% at 42.1%, with their “Big Three” accounting for two-thirds of their total xG. This makes sense for a star-studded roster, but how do other teams succeed without that level of individual talent?

LA Galaxy

The 2024 LA Galaxy won the MLS Cup after finishing the regular season with the third-most points (64), third-most goals (68), and the fourth-highest goal differential (+19). Crucially, the Galaxy led the league in xG that season with 63.8. They achieved this without a 20-goal scorer; instead, their goal and xG distribution was more balanced. Gabriel Chaves led the team with 16 goals from an xG of 14.4, followed by Dejan Joveljic with 15 goals and Joseph Paintsil with 10. Added to this formula was a fourth key player: midfielder Riqui Puig, an attacking threat who recorded 13 goals from an 8.8 xG. Puig was sorely missed by the Galaxy in 2025 and, due to injury, is expected to miss most of the 2026 season. Overall, the Galaxy led the league in shots on target and ranked second only to Inter Miami in SoT%. Quality of shot truly matters, and having enough high-quality shooters provides a distinct advantage regardless of the opponent.

Columbus Crew

What happens when a team relies heavily on a single player to carry the scoring load? Look at the 2023 Columbus Crew. While they did not lead the league in goals—finishing second to Atlanta United with 63—their top scorer, Cucho Hernandez, scored 16 times with a league-leading 20.2 xG. After Cucho, there was a significant drop-off in xG, with Lucas Zelarayan and Christian Ramirez both tied at 6.7. Cucho was not just the best quality shooter on the team; he was one of the best players in MLS that year, leading the league in xG, shots, and shots on target. Coach Wilfried Nancy recognized the importance of providing Cucho with opportunities, designing a system where other players created space and lanes for him to operate. Cucho ranked 7th in the league with 830 touches in the attacking third that year, while his teammate Zelarayan was 20th with 665. Cucho is now 26 years old and playing for Real Betis in La Liga.

LAFC

There are also teams that spread shot distribution across the roster, receiving contributions from the bench and newcomers alike. The 2022 MLS Cup winners, LAFC, led the league with an xG of 62.2, with Cristian Arango and Carlos Vela scoring 16 and 12 goals, respectively. Kwadwo Opoku, who played in all 34 regular-season matches but only started 20, scored 7 goals from an xG of 7.4—the third-highest xG on the team. The fifth-highest contribution came from summer transfer Dennis Bouanga, who played under 500 regular-season minutes but contributed vital goals during LAFC’s playoff run. Beyond the top five players, a full third of the team’s xG came from the rest of the roster, including everyday starters and bench players.

SDFC

Reflecting on the 2025 San Diego FC season, SDFC ranked 11th in xG. This is an area where the club can improve through better shot quality. Anders Dreyer recorded 17 xG last season, while Chucky Lozano followed with 10 and Onni Valakari with 4.9. Notably, Milan Iloski scored 10 goals despite an xG of only 4.1 (did he just get lucky in San Diego?). It is likely we will see improved shot quality in 2026 from the current roster. While xG data is limited in other leagues, Anders Dreyer tied his career club regular-season total of 19 goals last year; I could see him reaching 15–20 goals next season. Chucky Lozano should aim for double digits and could realistically hit 15 goals this season. New addition Lewis Morgan is also a candidate for double-digit scoring. Meanwhile, Pellegrino, Ingvartsen, and Valakari are expected to play key roles in the attack, potentially contributing between 4 and 8 xG each. Given that San Diego finished 11th in shots on target and 10th in SoT%, the primary focus must remain on shot quality.

xG is not the only metric that matters, but understanding the factors leading to a goal illustrates the underlying quality of a team. Now that we understand a little but how xG correlates to success in winning an MLS Cup, it will be a crucial stat to track. If we see improved shot quality from San Diego FC, we must ask: where is it coming from, and how can it be sustained? Hopefully, the off-season adjustments will culminate in hoisting a trophy in the near future.