San Diego FC’s regular season home campaign concluded with a 1-0 loss against the San Jose Earthquakes, a defeat that unfortunately highlights a struggle for the first-year club: an inability to score at home and win at home. Saturday night, San Diego FC looked like an expansion team and the loss is the culmination of this recurrent theme. With only two games left in the regular season, San Diego now needs to find form with the pieces they have.

Early Opportunities and the Decisive Goal

The tone for the match was set early in the third minute with a significant missed opportunity for SDFC. Chucky Lozano received a long pass from Anders Dreyer, managed to get behind the defense, and had only the goalkeeper to beat. However, Lozano sent a chip shot over the goalkeeper toward an open net, but the ball was wide of the mark, a big missed opportunity to finish off Dreyer’s great pass.

The only goal of the match came in the 14th minute after a mistake by SDFC. Following a deflection by Lozano, Dreyer tried to send a through ball to Amahl Pellegrino. Pellegrino knew he was offside and let the ball go back to the goalkeeper, a move that was a costly mistake. San Jose’s goalkeeper, Daniel, quickly delivered a pass to Cristian Espinoza at midfield, who then got the ball to Cristian Arango. Arango dribbled and delivered a ball to Josef Martinez in the penalty area. Martinez’s shot was deflected by SDFC goalkeeper CJ Dos Santos but not far enough, and the ball ended up in the back of the net, giving San Jose a 1-0 lead.

Statistical Dominance Masking a Lack of Finish

Despite the scoreline, San Diego was statistically dominant. For the rest of the first half, SDFC held the ball 72% of the time and took 9 shots, though none were on target. San Diego’s Expected Goals (xG) was 1.35 compared to San Jose’s 0.75, and they had 19 touches inside the opposition penalty area, significantly more than San Jose’s 5.

The second half was more of the same from the first half. San Diego maintained 72% of possession and took 10 shots, with 3 on target. The team played a bit better in the second half, as passing numbers improved. Overall passes completed rose from 85% to 90%, long passes from 55% to 75%, and passes in the final third from 68% to 88%. However, SDFC’s only problem was just not finishing. The second-half xG was 1.00 for SDFC and 0.22 for San Jose, but the final score remained 1-0. San Diego finished the season with a 7-5-5 home record.

The loss is especially perplexing considering San Jose’s defensive record, as this team is not a great one when it comes to allowing goals. San Jose has allowed the fourth most goals in the league with 58 goals. Their goalkeeper, Daniel, has allowed 46 goals this season, tied for the third most in the league, and his save percentage is low at 66.9%, ranking 25th. The clean sheet picked up on Saturday night was only Daniel’s third of the season. San Diego should have been able to put a few goals together and won this game.

2025 Regular Season Home Record

San Diego’s own goal-scoring has seen a sharp decline over the course of the regular season home matches. In SDFC’s first 9 home matches (5-3-1 record), they scored 17 goals to 7 allowed, achieving a +10 goal differential. Their goals per game was 1.88. In the last 8 home matches (2-2-4 record), they scored only 8 goals to 10 allowed, resulting in a -2 goal differential, and their goals per game dropped to just 1.00. Some attribute the low goal scoring partly to Milan Iloski leaving the club , but also potentially because teams have figured out San Diego and deploy a low block. Furthermore, players who have played way more minutes than they probably have expected may be experiencing fatigue. This is what I wrote back on May 19th:

“Despite playing two other matches earlier in the week, head coach Mikey Varas fielded a largely consistent starting XI compared to Wednesday’s game. The only change saw Oscar Verhoeven step in for Willy Kumado at right back. While the continuity in the lineup was notable, the significant minutes played by key players like Chucky Lozano, Anders Dreyer, Luca de la Torre, and Jeppe Tverskov (all exceeding 160 minutes for the week) raises questions about potential player fatigue. Although it’s early in the season, strategically managing player minutes could prove beneficial as the team aims for a successful season and a potential playoff spot. It’s anticipated that many players on the roster will reach career highs in minutes played this season.”

Suggested Tactical and Personnel Changes

With two matches left, San Diego needs to find the right combination of players for their system. The team is currently missing its first-choice left back, Luca Bombino, who is away at the U-22 World Cup in Chile after having played over 2,000 minutes this season, along with Duran Ferree and Pedro Soma. To cover the backline, SDFC has a few options, including Ian Pilcher, Franco Negri, Aiden Harangi, and Willy Kumado. An ideal backline could feature Franco Negri at left back and Willy Kumado at right back, with Paddy McNair and Chris McVey reunited and featured regularly at center back for a more optimal lineup.

The question of Manu Duah remains. The best choice might be to move Duah, who was drafted as a defensive midfielder and played his first minutes there, back to midfield alongside Jeppe Tverskov. Onni Valakari, who played well against San Jose and even took some shots at goal, would round out the midfield. The suggested front three would be Lozano, Dreyer, and Corey Baird. Baird played very well in his first start before injuring himself and has not started since then. Amahal Pellegrino has started the last three matches, taking 5 shots with 2 on target but scoring zero goals. A change or rotation of players in that spot needs to be made until San Diego FC can figure out the right combination for success in the playoffs.