Last Saturday, San Diego FC secured a 1-1 draw against Atlanta United. This result extended their unbeaten streak to eight straight road games and kept them in first place in the Western Conference. Despite the outcome, San Diego felt they left some points in Atlanta.

Matchday

San Diego FC used the same starting lineup as the previous week. This included a second consecutive start for Amahl Pellegrino at the number nine position and for Chris McVey playing right back. Aiden Harangi was finally healthy to join the bench and was another option at fullback.

The match began with Chucky Lozano receiving a yellow card in the sixth minute. San Diego’s offensive production was minimal in the first half, with only one shot on target, which became a goal in the 32nd minute. The play started when Lozano pressed and dispossessed Steven Alzate near the penalty area. Lozano then passed to Anders Dreyer, who scored his 15th goal of the season. This goal was Lozano’s eighth assist of the season, and Dreyer’s goal was his 31st goal contribution of the season.

In the second half, San Diego maintained over 60% possession but had only five shots. In contrast, Atlanta had 12 total shots, and both teams had three shots on target. Atlanta’s offensive pressure was evident, and it led to a penalty kick. After an interception, the ball was passed to Jamal Thiare in the penalty area. San Diego’s goalkeeper, CJ Dos Santos, missed the ball and tripped Thiare, resulting in a penalty kick. Miguel Almiron took the kick, scoring his fifth goal of the season and tying the match at 1-1. Dos Santos made four saves in total during the match. After the penalty, San Diego FC’s shooting production was minimal.

The Midfield’s Creative Slump

The lackluster offensive production, especially in the second half, may be due to the team’s midfield being a little disjointed. Passes were not consistently getting through to the midfielders or the front three. This issue may have been influenced by playing on turf. Also having a creative midfielder who can dribble the ball into the final third and distribute it effectively is needed.

An analysis of this problem was inspired by a conversation on the “Section 1904” podcast with John Gennaro and Darren Smith. One metric to analyze this is “progressive carries,” which measures when a player dribbles the ball at least ten yards toward the goal. In the match against Atlanta, San Diego FC had 11 progressive carries, while Atlanta United had 23. Miguel Almiron, Atlanta’s number 10, was responsible for seven of those carries.

Luca De La Torre is elite in the progressive carries category, ranking in the 98th percentile. However, his performance has declined. In his first eight matches, where he played approximately 612 minutes, he had 22 progressive carries, averaging over 3.24 per 90 minutes. In his last eight matches, playing around 569 minutes, he had only 12 progressive carries, averaging just under 2 per 90 minutes. For the entire season, De La Torre has 63 progressive carries, ranking him 43rd in the league. The San Diego FC player who leads the team in this category is Anders Dreyer, who is ranked 28th with 75 progressive carries. The league leader is Theo Corbenu with 161 progressive carries. Other leaders in the category are Denis Bouanga, Carles Gil, David Costa, Gabriel Chaves, Luca Orellano, Lionel Messi, Evander and Diego Rossi. Most of those players listed are midfielders.

De La Torre’s decline is also reflected in another statistic, “progressive distance,” which measures the total yards a player moves the ball toward the opponent’s goal. In his first eight games, De La Torre’s progressive distance was 767 yards, but in his last eight games, it dropped to 416 yards. This suggests he has not been taking the ball forward as much as he did earlier in the season. The first and last eight-game periods were chosen because the first seven of the eight games were played without Milan Iloski.

As Tony Sanchez had mentioned in a previous episode of the Chromaniacs, San Diego FC was scoring without the presence of Milan Iloski. In the first eight matches, San Diego FC averaged 1.88 goals per game, but in the last eight matches, that average has fallen to 1.25 goals per game. While their scoring rate is marginally different, their records are almost identical, with a 4-2-2 record to start the year and a 4-3-1 record in the last eight matches. Maybe what San Diego FC needs is more production from its midfield. Giving Onni Valkari or David Vazquez more opportunities could be beneficial if Luca De La Torre’s performance does not improve.

Western Conference Standings

Now, in terms of the standings, San Diego received some help in the western conference over the weekend. First the bad news, Vancouver Whitecaps defeated Sporting KC in a 2-0 victory. This was a win without the services of Thomas Muller, who was out with an injury. But since the acquisition of Muller, The Whitecaps have gone 3-1-1 and are currently on a three game winning streak. The other bad news is that LAFC won again and are also on a three game winning streak. Dennis Bouanga got his third hat trick in his third consecutive game. Since Son Heung-Min was acquired, your MLS goal leaders have been Denis Bouange with 9 goals, Son with 6 goals and Danny Musovski also with 6. The good news is Minnesota lost to the Chicago Fire 3-0 and Seattle Sounders lost to Austin FC 1-2 on a late goal winner by Austin FC. With the Seattle loss, this almost guarantees that SDFC will finish in the top 4 of the Western Conference. The race for the top spot in the western conference has gotten a lot closer between Vancouver, Minnesota and LAFC.

Upcoming Match

San Diego FC’s final home match of the regular season is against the San Jose Earthquakes, a team currently struggling to secure one of the last playoff spots. The Quakes are in a slump, having lost their last three matches and winning only two of their last 12 league games.

Their away record this season stands at five wins, two draws, and eight losses, totaling 17 points. In their most recent match, a 3-1 loss to St. Louis City, the Quakes’ only goal came from a penalty kick despite a higher expected goals (xG) of 3.3 compared to St. Louis’s 1.9.

When these two teams last met, San Diego FC emerged victorious with a 2-1 win, thanks to goals from Marcus Ingvartsen and Anders Dreyer.