Both teams are looking to grab the top spot in the Western Conference and Supporters Shield aspirations. For San Diego, a win at home will be a challenge, as they try to reach records for an expansion club.
What Happened Last Time…
The last time Minnesota United and San Diego FC played, San Diego came away with a 4-2 victory. That memorable match took place while several key players were away for the Gold Cup. San Diego was without Luca Del La Torre, Anibal Godoy, and Chucky Lozano, while Minnesota was missing Tani Oluwaseyi and first-choice keeper Dayne St. Clair. The game started with an own goal from Christopher McVey in the eighth minute , but Anders Dreyer responded just a couple of minutes later with a potential goal-of-the-year contender from midfield. Kelvin Yeboah then put the Loons ahead in the 38th minute. In the second half, Anders Dreyer equalized with a penalty kick , and Milan Iloski sealed the victory for San Diego with a brace, scoring in the 75th minute and again in stoppage time.
Roster Additions and Subtractions
Minnesota has been busy during the transfer window, adding several new players. They signed Dominik Fitz, a 26-year-old midfielder from Austria’s Wien, who tallied 40 goals and 37 assists in nine seasons with the club. They also acquired Nectrarios Triantis, a 22-year-old midfielder from Sunderland A.F.C. who had been on loan to Hibernian in the Scottish League, where he recorded 3 goals and 6 assists in over 3700 minutes of play. Finally, Minnesota signed Mamadou Dieng from USL Championship side Hartford Athletic, where he spent two seasons and scored 21 goals and 2 assists. On the flip side, Minnesota United transferred out one of their top goal scorers. Tani Oluwaseyi was sent to La Liga Villarreal CF for a club-record fee of around $8.5 to $9 million. In 2025, Oluwaseyi had 10 goals and 7 assists. In his three seasons with Minnesota, he recorded a total of 20 goals and 12 assists.
What Minnesota Has Done Since
Since their last match against San Diego FC, Minnesota has a league record of 6-3-2. The Loons are near the bottom of the league in possession, averaging only 39.6% possession on the season. Interestingly, in their recent wins, they have had even less possession, averaging just 38.6%. Despite the low possession numbers, Minnesota ranks 12th in the league with 44 goals scored. They are the best team in the league at scoring goals from set pieces, with 18 goals from those situations. Minnesota also ranks fourth in the league for shots on target percentage at 38.6%.
Defensively, Dayne St. Clair remains one of the league’s best goalkeepers. He has a 78.8% save percentage, which is second in the league, and also ranks second with 79 saves and 9 clean sheets. As a team, Minnesota has allowed the fourth-fewest goals this season with 32, with St. Clair allowing only 23 of them. The Loons are also strong in other defensive categories, ranking seventh with 285 tackles won and having the most tackles in their defensive third with 265. They are also sixth in the league for shots blocked by a defensive player, seventh in interceptions, and have more clearances than any other team with 917.
Will San Diego Take More Shots?
In recent league play, San Diego hasn’t looked quite like themselves. When the season first started, they took charge of the ball, tried to outshoot their opponents, and had strong offensive performances, such as their 5-0 win over FC Dallas. However, in their last eight league matches, opponents have outshot San Diego 100 to 67. Shots on target were almost identical, with San Diego having 26 and their opponents having 27. The expected goals (xG) metric was also in favor of the opponent, 11.2 to 7.5.
Despite these numbers, San Diego has outscored their opponents 10-5 in their last eight games. They have been outperforming their expected goals, leading some to say they have been getting “lucky”. While a low xG to actual goals ratio could be concerning in any other European league and might indicate that San Diego’s luck may eventually run out, the MLS might be an outlier. The team with the highest Goal minus xG is Inter Miami at +11.3, which makes sense with a striker like Lionel Messi. San Diego is second on this list, followed by FC Cincinnati, Orlando, and Charlotte. These teams are all in a prime position to make the playoffs and have a goal differential over +8. Teams with a Goal minus xG ratio near zero, such as LAFC and the Seattle Sounders, have been highly efficient this season. On the other end of the spectrum are Austin, Real Salt Lake, and St. Louis, whose negative goal differentials suggest a more difficult season.
Can San Diego Defeat the Low Block?
In their recent home matches, San Diego has struggled against teams with a low block. Their last home game against the Portland Timbers is a perfect example: the Timbers were content to get a point away, having the ball only 36% of the time and playing most of the game in their own half. This resulted in San Diego getting just one shot on target. Toronto FC had a similar game plan on July 16th, scoring a penalty in the 20th minute and then playing defensively for the rest of the game, possessing the ball only 30% of the time.
In their last four matches, San Diego has a record of one win, two draws, and one loss, having scored two goals and conceded two goals. In order to make a deep playoff run, San Diego needs to prove they can win at home against a low-block defense by finding open space and delivering more shots on goal. While the team loves to attack up the middle, a shift in strategy is needed. Sending fullbacks wide to cross the ball into the penalty area for a 50/50 ball would be an unexpected move that could catch a team like Minnesota United off guard. A change in tactics is a risk worth taking for a team with championship aspirations.
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